Wall Street analysts were riveted on January 20

Wall Street analysts were riveted on January 20. More than three weeks to test the reaction of the New York Stock Exchange at the official inauguration of the 44th President of the United States and the effective impact of his future "New Deal" of 750 to 850 billion in preparation. In the meantime, the markets must take their evil grin.

Despite a slight recovery in the last two sessions, the Dow Jones industrial average (32.7 in one year ) has experienced its highest annual drop since 1931, where he had dropped 40.6 to the highest of the great depression. The & S P 500 fall of 37.6 on the year 2008. According to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, which provides the broadest measure of the performance of us stocks, some $ billion in market capitalization 7.300 left smoke in 2008.

"The team of Barack Obama seems to indicate that it wishes to an extremely vigorous fiscal stimulus plan." "Because he in not was significant so far, the markets could be sensitive", said Mary Ann Bartels of Merrill Lynch.

But questions remain about the impact of the "Obama plan" to create 3 million jobs by 2011. In the light of the unknowns on the economic climate and employment, opinion remains divided on the proximity of the floor and the possibility of a real recovery of markets in the first half of 2009.

"Cleansing" is not finished

According to calculations by David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, which provide a recession in 18 months, the longest of the post-war period, the floor would be not far away. The historical analysis shows that the & S P 500 reached his level lowest five months before the end of a recessive cycle. However, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the US recession actually started in December 2007. Meanwhile, Economist Nouriel Roubini (New York University) believes that this recession might last up to 24 months.

The year 2008 will remain "a year to forget" for investors. Dow Jones moves back by 38 since its record of October 9, 2007, the & S P 500 by 42.3 from its highest, the same day, and the Nasdaq by 39.6 over a year. According to the founder of the Dow Theory Letters, Richard Russell, who had planned the crashes in 1987 and 2000, a threshold of decisive strength of the Dow Jones could near the 7.470 points (against 8.776,39 points Wednesday).

Despite the injection of the first $ 300 billion of public funds to recapitalize the American banks, some analysts argue that the "cleansing" of the sector has not been completed. The Standard & Poor's Agency has revised downward, on 19 December, the note of various American banks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America...) in the light of "the worsening of the global economic slowdown. And the financial sector is not the only one concerned. Other forecasters do not exclude a likelihood of recurrence of markets following the publication of the industrial results of the first quarter of 2009.

Despite the Federal Reserve activism American, which has reduced its rates to a level close to zero and who used all the "unconventional" instruments to combat the threat of deflation, Wall Street remains traumatized by the black series of the year 2008, the fall of Bear Stearns to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, September 15passing by the rescue in extremis of the giants of the mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and AIG's. "Not counting the Madoff scandal, which could act as a bomb to fragmentation on the morale of investors", says an analyst.