And yet the worst is not the most likely

In the world, the sky was blue... but Achille Talon was preparing to play golf. And typing the ball, him comic hero triggered a global storm. In real economic life, it is rare that the storm will appear out of nothingness. But America could play the role of Achille Talon in a world in full boom. As if world production growth of 5 in 2006 for the fourth consecutive year, of the United States is less quickly. The next year, its gross domestic product growth of less than 3 for the first time since 2003. Could it be Short term interest rates now exceed the rates in the long term, "inversion of the yield curve" which preceded little each of the six recessions observed since the 1960s. Merrill Lynch experts worried from another indicator: they have counted that the term "low" ("weak" American) was 50 times in the latest "beige book" where the US Federal Reserve made the round of the national situation, against the previous 40 and 53 in January 2001, just before the last recession.

However we do not have the means to ignore the US economy. The United States remains the first power of the planet. They produce more than one-quarter of world production. They are the sixth imports, twice more than the Germany and three times more than China. A drop in the dollar would heavily handicap European exports. The heart of finance remains in New York. If America's dark, the effects will be felt in Paris, Shanghai and Buenos Aires. Without back until the crisis of 1929, the last retreat of the US economy (1973, 1980-1982, 1990, 2001) were all followed by a serious brake in Europe within two years.

Three threats to the growth of the United States are clearly identified, for example in the recent economic prospects for the IMF: oil, inflation, real estate. Oil, the danger away. The barrel is income below 60 dollars, while it was trading at more than 75 dollars two months ago. American companies have apparently cashed without too much difficulty the boom passed. They have never been as much profits more than 400 billion dollars in the only second quarter, or 12 of GDP! Individuals, they are reassured. In recent months their morale and their appetite for consumption were indexed to the price of the gallon of gasoline. Logic, in a country where every household has an average of two cars that burn more than 150 dollars of fuel per month! Attention however: the lull may be provisional. Experience of recent years shows that the market still very tense, can pack in the slightest glitch in one of the major producers of black gold.

The second threat, is inflation. In a year, the consumer price increased by 3.8. This is of course a little fault in the oil. But without the "volatile" prices (oil and food) products, the index still rose by 2.8, two times faster than in Europe. It is likely that salaries grow at the wheel, which is not surprising in a country where less than 5 of the assets are unemployed. In their recent cyclical, OECD experts show the curve "unit production costs", the largest wage indicator: they continue to accelerate in the United States (while they remain flat, on a slope of 1 year on this side of the Atlantic). In one year, they won 5!

If wages continue this momentum, the Federal Reserve will not choice but to respond to oversimplify its benchmark interest rate (5.25 today) to break the inflationary spiral, while she made the break in his monetary tightening for three months. At a flat close: the escalation of the cost of labour is not found in the rates. Production, excluding food and energy prices, increased by less than 1 in one year! Productivity is perhaps underestimated. And companies have the means to pay their employees without their profitability at risk.

On real estate, the situation is more critical. New homes are sold very poorly. Developers have come to propose to the purchasers to redeem their old House! At the time, the number of building permits is in free fall by 20 in one year. And the building crashing. Real estate weighing 5 to 6 of U.S. production, the brake kick would lower growth of 1. Some experts believe that the market will be cleaned up when it will be declined 20 additional still 1 less growth! And real estate flipping propagates its recessive effects by at least two channels. Firstly, all the equipment of the House (furniture, appliances, etc.) slows. Secondly, the decline in housing prices deprive Americans of a fantastic prizes: in recent years, they had borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars pledged on the rise in the value of their house. And they were able to spend long, at the price of a debt that now reaches 94 of GDP (54 in France). Another brake acts on consumption: quarter of borrowers are indebted to variable rates. Interest rate increase by the Fed since mid-2004 pushed their monthly payments. Combined, all these effects could lead America to the recession.

And yet, the worst is not the most likely. First, the building industry is not that built housing. As noted by economists of the broker Aurel Leven, the Office component is up 28 over a year. Then, real estate prices are resistant, at least for the moment. Quite frustrated, indices in sharp decline reflected both the decline in the area of sold housing than their value! Finally and most importantly, us growth is better balanced that there is a year or two. Wage boost the purchasing power of individuals. Companies invest ( 7 a year) and fill their order books. Exports increased faster than imports. In 2007, even after a severe brake suddenly, the growth of the United States still has opportunities to around 2... and exceed that of Europe.