Of course the crisis is not yet completely finished

Of course, the crisis is not yet completely finished. It is still "too early" to release stimulus efforts, insisted US Secretary of Treasury Timothy Geithner. But, Friday and Saturday, at Lecce, in the South of the Italy, the Finance Ministers of the G8 have been reasonably optimistic about the end of the tunnel. In their final communiqué, they thereby evoke several signs of stabilization of their economies", as the recent rise in stock markets, downward deviations from interest rates on interest rate markets, without forgetting an improvement of the confidence of households and businesses.

However, the part is not yet won. "Significant risks in the economic and financial stability persist", they warn. But the tone is resolutely optimistic while the international monetary fund has, for the first time since March 2007, raised its forecast of growth of the global economy for 2010 to 2.4 versus 1.9 previously. A recovery allowed "the improvement in the United States in Asia," and the Japan, particularly said Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Nevertheless, the Director General of the IMF warned that the social impact of the crisis would reach its peak in 2011. "Growth will return in early 2010, which means peak of unemployment in early 2011", because the time lag of one year between economic recovery and its impact on the labour market, he warned.

The Finance Ministers endorsed these dark social forecasts, indicating that their Governments will continue to implement measures to reduce the impact of the crisis on the market of employment, including by "active policies of employment targeted".

Risk for growth

Sensing wind turn all remaining prudent, Ministers therefore gave mandate to the IMF to help to define a strategy of "out of crisis." Stimulus packages have resulted deficits soar, the great paymaster are concerned about the sustainability of public debt and wondered about the best ways to reduce their deficit to quash the nascent recovery.

Hope returned, it appears the gregarious behaviour of before crisis are also back. "Excessive volatility of commodity prices constitute a risk to growth", stressed the Ministers. Since the end of the month of February, Tin prices increased by 35, those of corn, wheat and soybeans by 25. Worse, oil prices soared by 75 with a barrel back above $ 70.

Italian economy Minister Giulio Tremonti has particularly singled out the return of the little shiny speculative transactions "on the markets of raw materials and products derivatives", by adding that "the concerns in this regard are shared by all Ministers. The final communiqué of the g-8 said that the Ministers will study ways to improve the functioning and transparency of international markets for raw materials. "We asked the IMF and the international organization of securities commissions (IOSCO) to work with the international agency of energy that they offer us more of the methods of monitoring and perhaps even a regulation relating to the oil market", said the French Minister, Christine Lagarde.

The great paymaster also reaffirmed their commitment to restore the solvency of their respective banking systems, that it is of recapitalisations or measures to restore liquidity in the interbank markets and, in the right line with commitments made at the G20 heads of State in London, April 2, they welcomed the progress in the fight against tax havens (read below)While wishing to keep the pressure on States that have not yet complied with the rules of the OECD.

Finally, the Ministers adopted an Italian initiative to build a corpus of common rules for finance and the business world, called "lecce framework".